US Bungled Turkey Diplomacy

The front page of the Washington Post has a piece on how the Bush Administration completely screwed up its negotiations with Turkey. The Administration was foolish, setting a number of fictional deadlines without consequences. It was clumsy, allowing Turkey to think that they were far more important than they actually were. Finally, it was arrogant, asserting that we didn't need Turkey anyway. This screwed up the war, the UN vote, and did permanent damage to the US relationship with Turkey -- who will be desperately needed as Iraq's reconstruction begins.

"One week into the war, the administration's inability to win Turkey's approval has emerged as an important turning point in the U.S. confrontation with Iraq that senior U.S. officials now acknowledge may ultimately prolong the length of the conflict. It is a story of clumsy diplomacy and mutual misunderstanding, U.S. and Turkish officials said. It also illustrates how the administration undercut its own efforts to broaden international support for war by allowing its war plan to dictate the pace of its diplomacy, diplomats and other experts in U.S.-Turkish relations said."
"Turkey's rejection not only forced a rewrite of the war plan, but it undercut the administration's broader diplomatic efforts to win international support for an invasion. Diplomats said the image of Turkey resisting U.S. pressure emboldened smaller countries on the U.N. Security Council to reject a proposed U.S.-British resolution authorizing military action. The failure of that resolution in turn made it impossible for the United States to recruit such close allies as Canada and Mexico to join the fight against Iraq, since they had tied their support to a new resolution."

Nasiriya as Harbringer

It hasn't been posted yet, but one of CNN's embeds just reported from inside the city of Nasiriya, which he said was occupied by the coalition. I'm posting a summary of the report here, because it seems like it's typical of what's going on in the contested cities right now. The embed said that the mission, which was supposed to take 6 hours and has lasted six days, has been slowly winding down over the last three days. He made it sound as though the coalition had taken control of the town, and that the guerilla problem was relatively under control. This is in stark contrast to the reports from the BBC. He said militias on both sides are fighting in the streets. This is also interesting, because I haven't heard any reports of a pro-coalition militia there. These pro-Hussein militias have hidden their weapons inthe fields surrounding the cities, and the reporter described a big effort to remove the weapons caches. This part is a scary. Knowing that the coalition will not attack civilians, the pro-Hussein militia members shoot at the coalition units, and then immediately drop their weapons and disappear into the crowds. Finally, he described the friendly fire incident covered earlier today, and cited 20 injuries and no casualties. He described thefirefight between three different coalition units, all of whichthought the others were Iraqi military. The embed said he wasshot in the head, saved only by his helmet. The embed made it sound like friendly fire was a chronic problem during the five day fight for the city.

Grocery Cards

Turns out those irritating grocery cards don't even save you money overall. They just make you feel like you're saving money and let stores boast of savings they don't offer to everybody. The Poynter Institute has a good summary on the latest on the cards, which includes a WSJ story comparing savings in stores with and without cards and a Businessweek story on the privacy issues. http://www.poynter.org/column.asp?id=2 Those Annoying Grocery Cards It does annoy me that I now have three -- count them, three -- grocery cards to carry around so I can pretend I am saving money. You probably use them too, those little "discount" cards they swipe at the grocery checkout to "save" you money. But do cards save money? You might have guessed the answer is no. Stores use them to track your purchases. The Wall Street Journal reports, "How much cash are you really saving by shopping at a supermarket that has a card, instead of a noncard store? To find out, we went shopping at both types of stores and talked to a range of card experts. We found that, most likely, you are saving no money at all. In fact, if you are shopping at a store using a card, you may be spending more money than you would down the street at a grocery store that doesn't have a discount card. We learned this the hard way, by going on a five-city, shop-till-you-drop grocery spree. In each city, we shopped at a store using its discount card, and afterward went to a nearby grocery store that doesn't have a card and bought the same things. Then we rolled up our sleeves, unrolled our receipts and crunched the numbers. In all five of our comparisons, we wound up spending less money in a supermarket that doesn't offer a card, in one case 29 percent less. The bottom line: Sale prices -- which were once available to all shoppers -- are now mostly restricted to cardholders in stores with cards and are called "card specials." In our experience, items not covered by card discounts tended to be more expensive than at nearby noncard stores. As a result, we paid more at card stores than at noncard stores. Supermarkets strongly defend their programs. The cards let stores "target savings" to their most loyal customers, says Ertharin Cousin of Albertsons. Still, according to industry experts, the WSJ shopping experience was typical, because cards are designed to make customers feel like they got a bargain, without actually lowering prices overall. Less income, higher prices? BusinessWeek also explored the issue in a thoughtful article. BusinessWeek said: Longer-term, the impact of data collection could be far more disturbing. Using cards to track purchase histories, stores are beginning to segment customers into groups based on how much and how often they purchase. Such information will help stores target desirable -- read: profitable -- customers and cater to their needs. This is high priority in the grocery business. After all, the top 30 percent of customers account for 75 percent or more of sales, while the bottom 30 percent account for just 3 percent, according to independent grocer Gary Hawkins, who also serves as president of the Syracuse (N.Y.) consulting firm DataWorks Marketing. Ultimately, the information could be used to tailor prices to individual shoppers -- much the way airlines charge vastly different prices for two seats on the same flight. While that makes economic sense, under a worst-case scenario, the system could discriminate against lower-income shoppers who may simply have less money to spend. The strategy is called customer-specific marketing, and it's the supermarket industry's Holy Grail. The reason? In a nutshell, Wal-Mart. As grocery stores see revenues and profits flatten, Wal-Mart, with its low prices and huge selection, continues to lure shoppers. Supermarkets need to fight back. But they don't want to compete on price, says DataWorks' Hawkins. "They need to extend special prices, but only to certain customer segments," he says. "As stores begin to better understand the data they're collecting, they'll use it not just for marketing but to develop new metrics to manage and serve customers." Some stores even rate their customers. They have a system that gives more discounts to people who shop more.

Microsoft

Looks like big companies are finally getting involved in the fight against spam and pop-ups. Today Microsoft said it wouldn't let hotmail subscribers send more than 100 messages a day -- at least not unless they paid for more storage. It's half-hearted, but still a start. Even a small fee might be deterent enough since spam only works by being essentially free. AOL and other providers are now getting into the act. Mainly their efforts are lame, like the totally ineffective pop-up blocker I have from Earthlink. With spam now making up half of all email, it's about time for corporate America to get involved. REDMOND, Washington (AP) -- To cut down on junk e-mail, Microsoft Corp. is capping the number of e-mails that users of its free Hotmail service can send each day. By limiting to 100 the number of messages that could be sent in a 24-hour period, Microsoft's MSN division hopes to stop people from using its service to send the unsolicited messages, known as spam. "MSN is strongly committed to helping stop the widespread problem of spam and this change is one way we are preventing spammers from using Hotmail as a vehicle to send the unwanted e-mails," said Lisa Gurry, MSN lead product manager. Microsoft said it viewed the limit as a reasonable cap that would affect less than 1 percent of its active subscriber base of 110 million. The company would not disclose its previous cap. The limit took effect earlier this month. It does not apply MSN 8 subscribers or those who purchase extra storage on Hotmail.

SARS Spreads

Ready.gov Bio-Thinker
OnePeople.org Official SARS Logo
We were beginning to feel like delusional paranoids after reporting that the SARS outbreak was coming under control and patients were being discharged. Buried amongst the war items today, Reuters is reporting that the U.S. State Department is encouraging citizens in Vietnam to leave, even offering to pay for the plane home for diplomat's families. Five schools are now closed, and cases have been confirmed in Germany and Britain. Scientists have identified the virus, which is probably in the paramyxovirus family, of measles and mumps fame. In a darkly humorous twist, the Hong Kong Hospital Authority chief William Ho has been hospitalized with symptoms of pneumonia.

Russian Aid to Iraq

Fox News cited this article, but it's missing from their website. No coverage on CNN. A collection Russian companies shipped night-vision equipment, radar jamming, and and antitank missles to Iraq. The State Department has been talking to the Russian government about this for over a year, but the effort was complicated by the nuclear weapons treaty negotiations and their bid to get Russian help in North Korea. The Russian government said the company doesn't exist, then said they were watching the company closely, then that the goods were legal, then that they couldn't stop the shipments if they wanted to.

SARS: Good News/Bad News

As a followup to our previous coverage of the SARS outbreak, three schools in Hong Kong have been closed, and they've figured out that a professor visiting Hong Kong from the Chinese mainland was the source of the hotel outbreak, which sickened the first batch of six in Hong Kong. Worldwide, there are 350 cases and six deaths. The good news: vigorous treatment seems to help. Many of the hospitalized patients in Hong Kong are being sent home. While no cause has been found, the WHO has sent a team to the Guangdong province in China, which borders Hong Kong, to determine a link between SARS and the atypical pneumonia outbreak there last year.

MoJo on Blood for Oil

Bond Villain Blofeld
"I have sinned in my heart."
MotherJones has a great piece on the "Blood for Oil" story, with a short history of American policy in the Gulf. It starts sounding an awful lot like alarmist petro-conspiracy nonsense, but there's enough useful information there to make it worth reading. It undermines the antiwar "Blood for Oil" argument, and replaces it with a more far-fetched and creepy argument against American aspirations of global domination. The article describes U.S. policy in the Persian Gulf after the Oil Crisis of the 1970s. Suddenly concerned with its access to oil, the United States diversified its oil vendors and began a deliberate campaign to assert influence over the oil-producing states in the Gulf. This was either a result of, or was closely harmonized with, some hawkish global dominance thinking and the influence of Kissinger. The strategy proposed by the conservative think-tanks (and Kissinger, apparently) was not about getting oil but rather controlling access to oil. If the U.S. can reduce its own dependence on Gulf oil, and can prevent others from getting that same oil, they will "control the spigot" and extend its reach to every oil-consuming country in the world. One struggles to imagine President Carter in a black nehru jacket, petting a white persian kitten. In order to assert this hegemony, the US is supposed to overthrow governments in the region and install friendly regimes... and everyone knows how good a track record we have doing that. In actuality, of course, the US has supported the existing regimes and the alternate oil vendors in the western hemisphere can't really meet the US demand. This gap between the plan and the actual history is fairly wide, and goes mostly unaddressed by the article. Near the end of the piece, MoJo cites the opinion of the oil industry commentariat, which indicates that the oil industry is nervous about war in the region and would much rather have the corrupt stability of the existing leadership, instead of the uncertainty of a regional conflict. This is, of course, where the traditional "Blood for Oil" argument breaks down. The question raised by the article is not whether hawkish portions of the Bush Administration want to control the Persian Gulf -- of course they do. The article cites many papers and meetings on the subject. They want America-friendly democracies with American military bases pumping oil to American consumers. Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz has been a vocal proponent of this policy, adding a dash of pro-democracy and human rights reasoning. Instead, the question is whether or not this is a plausible policy that won't make things worse for both the Gulf and America in the long term. The answers, of course, will make themselves very clear during the purge and reconstruction in Iraq.